Straying From the Flock


Out of the pot. Some thoughts on the normalcy bias.

I read an article about a term that I had heard in the past: The Normalcy Bias. It was a very emotional rendition of a woman trying to evacuate her home as a wild fire began to overtake her neighborhood. As I read about her standing there watching the report as it was being read on the news, I thought to myself, wow, she could see the flames out of her window, but she spent those precious seconds staring at the television. The thought baffled me. Why would you stand in the face of imminent danger and do nothing? That is the power of the normalcy bias.

By definition, the normalcy bias refers to an extreme mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate the both the possibility of a disaster occurring and also its possible effects.

It is this “That can’t happen here” attitude is both dangerous to yourself and those around you. Many have heard the metaphor about the frog in the pot. (there is debate to it’s truth in science, but the metaphor works well for this example.) Place a frog in a pot of boiling water and it will jump out, but place a frog in tepid water slowly raising the heat, and that frog will remain in the water until it has cooked. Gross, but effective. I can see a large melting pot with 350 million frogs doing the backstroke right now. I am swimming for the edge.

Why doesn’t the frog jump out? Is it because it fears no danger? I am sure that the frog feels the temperature increasing. I think that as long as most of the frogs are having a leisurely swim about the pot, the rest will just continue to tread water. Keeping the status quo intact is essential. Think of our elected politicians and corporate masters as the lifeguards. All is well in the pool, just relax and remember, no running. Someone hand me my towel.

We are told day after day that things are getting better. Inflation is being held in check, the stock market is back to pre-crash levels, and if you were concerned about that immanent terrorist attack, fear not, TSA will give you a little squeeze, take your picture, and ensure your safety. Again, nothing to see here, keep swimming and all will be well. Loss of civil liberties aside, we are much safer than 11 years ago, right? If things were getting better, wouldn’t we undo some of the constrictions that have been put in place to take care of us? Just do another lap and you will be fine.

It isn’t until you are standing outside of the pot that you see the problem. They told you the water was getting warmer because the temperature was being raised to compensate for the air outside getting colder. If you looked up you would see the vent over the stove was on. The first step is to release yourself from the illusion that we are being taken care of and that the recovery is well on the way. After that, there are many things you can do to prepare for the coming paper storm: Food, water, medicine, physical metals, a solid local network, guns and lots of ammo, and reducing your personal debt are just a few of the most essential.

It is not too late. Just follow the wet footprints away from the stove.


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Reblogged this on John Malcolm.

Comment by John Malcolm

WOW!! I have never heard of the normalcy bias, but I now have a firm understanding of what it is and how it can affect me. We too often believe that “it won’t happen to us” and it continues to do so. Great post.

Comment by sociallyfitblog

Reblogged this on The Grey Enigma.

Comment by The Grey Enigma

Reblogged this on Love to God.

Comment by Hasan Ismail

Here’s another example of normalcy bias that I use with people:

Imagine that you live on a farm. From the day that you are born, you are treated quite well. You’re fed well, provided with shelter, and the farmer has guns and dogs to protect you from all the bad guys lurking just outside the fence.

Life is good.

Occasionally, though, you hear whispers that some of your fellow associates on the farm vanish in the night, never to be heard from again. No one quite knows where they go. Some claim that they’ve run off in search of greener pastures. Others say that they were banished from the farm for bad behavior. Still others say that they died of natural causes and ascended to the next plane of existence.

Whatever, you don’t really care. You’re starting to mature into an adult, the women are starting to notice you, your belly is full, and it’s another glorious day on the farm.

Life is good.

One day, one of your fellow associates comes squawking in. He’s screaming his head off, talking about how he’s seen the farmer killing a bunch of your guys. Chopping their heads off. He says that they’re all are next in line.

Whatever, you don’t really care. Frankly, he sounds insane. Your life up to this point has been great. How could it end all of a sudden at the hands of the farmer that’s been taking care of you? There’s just no way. It’s impossible.

Then you see the farmer come walking into the shelter. He leads you out to a section of the farm that you’ve never been to before. It smells bad, and it looks like there’s blood on the floor. You start to get a little nervous, but still, you figure everything will turn out all right.

You still feel that way, right up until the moment the farmer chops your head off.

It’s November 24th, and you are a turkey.

Comment by KSM

Gobble gobble. Never knew what was going on till the ace fell. Glad you are aware and awake. You are ten steps ahead of the herd.

Comment by strayingfromtheflock

Very good article. Thank You.

Comment by eyebrowslamana

Let’s see you mention altenatives as the things people depend on to live. Weapons are not apart of equalation and smell of “Us vs Them” when there’s already seriously unsolved racial problems.

The aftermath of Katrina gives a view into a world of economic displacement and law enforcement’s little
control over vigilantie-ism and killing of unarmed citizens itself.

This is the version of the United States I do not want to be apart of in any form or fashion and the solution IS NOT to have your own weapon to battle against others with similar weapons = Violence

Owning metal is viable, for the employed. I have opted to buy some silver, but being unemployed, I can only afford so much. It will not make me rich, it will possibly give me a chance at home ownership when the bottom is finally hit in the US housing market. That is if I believe the worst will not happen.

There several places you can live for under $1,000 a month that aren’t backwater or war-torn. Just seek out the information and you’ll be surprised where you can live for the salary you earn at Wal-Mart, Starbucks, Burger King or Pep Boys.

When I decided to enter into IT, despite the outsourcing inside America, the demand is high enough in Europe and South America to offset that and be able to find a well paying job. Since the “nanny state” is much more robust in Western Europe, the overall cost of living for those near the bottom of the earning scale is very comparable to middle class life in America, where 53 Million including myself have no health insurance what-so-ever and that the REAL unemployment rate is closer to 15-16% and not 8. whatever.

People near the edge, have gone over it. Living in homeless shelters and in cars. The newspapers are filled weekly with such stories.

You don’t have to be a gloom and doomer to see there some serious fundimental problems with our politcally and economic systems.

But like the fall of the wall, people inside the movement thought it might take 10 years. After that statement was made it took 10 hours for the wall to be rendered meaningless.

The use of violence and protectionism or becoming apart of the prepareness movement is regression of human behavior back to the mid 1800’s.

Comment by Anthony

[…] been raised in this consent toxic environment, we’re subject to what’s called the normalcy bias and in almost every instance of interpersonal abuse I have been part of, I have fallen victim to […]

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